In a market where supply has widened faster than demand and nearly six out of ten sellers have already reduced their price at least once, today’s data confirms that Austin remains in correction mode—but for the first time in several months, measurable stabilization indicators are gaining momentum beneath the surface.
Scroll down to view the full Austin Daily Real Estate Briefing PDF for Wednesday, November 26, 2025.
The Austin real estate market continues to operate in a slower absorption environment, with active residential listings at 15,190, a 14.9 percent increase from this time last year. Inventory remains well above levels historically aligned with a balanced market, although still below the June 30 peak of 18,146. Pricing alignment remains critical with 57.7 percent of active listings having recorded at least one price drop; however, unlike earlier this fall, the current signals suggest buyer engagement is strengthening instead of retracting. The pendings now match last year’s volume at 3,851. Given the higher supply levels, maintaining equal year-over-year contract activity is a net positive and indicates that buyers who are active are moving with intent.
The Activity Index has held above 20 percent for ten consecutive days, the longest positive-duration streak since June. While still below last year’s 22.6 percent, maintaining this level of market engagement over multiple business cycles confirms transaction pace is stabilizing faster than earlier in the quarter. New construction continues to outperform at 26.58 percent, with resale tracking at 17.43 percent. However, the streak above 20 percent signals that demand-side energy is resurfacing even within resale, particularly among well-positioned listings.
Year to date, the market has seen 47,664 new listings against 40,632 cumulative pending, a gap of 7,032. While this imbalance remains notable, momentum improved this month. The Monthly New Listing to Pending Ratio sits at 0.82—the best monthly reading since December 2024—indicating that more of what comes to market is now being absorbed. Cumulative new listings are up 5.0 percent year over year and 22.7 percent above average, while cumulative pending is down just 2.0 percent but still 6.2 percent above average long-term performance. The recent improvement in conversion suggests that buyers are actively reentering the market, even if cautiously.
Months of Inventory stands at 5.41, up 16.9 percent from last year’s 4.63. This level still reflects buyer leverage and slower absorption, but the lack of additional softening this month and improving demand metrics suggest inventory pressure is beginning to stabilize. Austin’s city-level inventory is up 2.9 percent year over year and 14.4 percent YTD, but improvement in buyer action helps counter balance some of that excess. Only 10 percent of tracked submarkets are in Seller Acceleration territory, with half still sitting in contraction, yet the current engagement streak points toward improved momentum as we enter the seasonal slow period.
Closed sales for November reached 2,295. Year-to-date closings total 28,002, down 2.9 percent from 2024 but still 8.2 percent higher than the long-term average. Demand efficiency indicators remain under strain, including sold properties per 100,000 population at 1,093, down 5.2 percent year over year and still 20.2 percent below average. Sold per 1,000 Realtors is up 1.7 percent but remains 22.7 percent below average. The current data suggests the market is leaning on opportunistic demand rather than volume-based momentum, but efficiency should improve if the current pendings and purchase application trajectory continue.
Pricing remains stable relative to recent months. The average sold price is $589,478, down 13.56 percent from the May 2022 peak, while the median sits at $440,000, 20 percent below peak conditions. Importantly, today’s pricing patterns reflect normalization more than overshoot, and the recent demand reactivation supports price stability if current levels hold into early 2026. The median remains 4.35 percent below values from 36 months prior, and based on the 25-year Austin compound annual appreciation rate of 4.886 percent, it would take approximately 59 months (through September 2030) to regain peak-level pricing if appreciation restarts from current levels. With leading indicators now trending up, this projection remains within reason.
Performance across price sectors remains uneven. Lower-tier properties saw a 1.49 percent price gain year over year but a 1.67 percent price-per-foot decline, suggesting structural rather than value improvements. Higher-tier properties have gained 7.46 percent in price and 2.52 percent in price per square foot, pointing to stronger performance where demand remains more financially qualified. If demand continues broadening, this trend should moderate in 2026.
The absorption rate stands at 16.67 percent against a 31.70 percent historical average, illustrating demand still operating at roughly half of normal velocity. The Market Flow Score of 4.80, compared to an average of 6.59, also suggests ongoing supply heaviness. However, the consistency in the Activity Index, the improved conversion rate, and the return to equal-year pendings are all early signals that demand is stabilizing rather than deteriorating further.
Builders continue to gain share through incentives and financing support. Resale competition remains elevated, but the agents who set correct entry pricing and use today’s demand signals to position properly will bypass longer-term sellers still chasing the market.
Looking forward, the trajectory of demand will be more important than the volume of supply. If the recent buyer activation pattern holds through early January, inventory should begin stabilizing without heavier price correction requirements. The next inflection to watch is pending velocity heading into the first quarter. With buyer intent now rising and the longest sustained positive Activity Index since June, the market is better positioned entering 2026 than it was 30 days ago.
Strategically, buyers continue to have leverage but may see increased competition in well-priced segments if demand trends continue. Sellers who react to current pricing logic and leverage today’s uptick in demand indicators can position ahead of expected January acceleration. Investors should focus on timing and capture opportunities in stable or strengthening submarkets, as leading indicators suggest a shift from decline management to baseline rebuilding.
